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| Trainer Pass Shiny/Shadow Odds (Marc) | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Dec 12 2014, 01:35 PM (931 Views) | |
Marc
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Dec 12 2014, 01:35 PM Post #1 |
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Randomness
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So I really wanted to try out Trainer Pass, and a friend agreed to lend me his account as long as I took a record of what I caught and gave him half. So I decided to do another investigation to Trainer Pass chances regarding Shiny and Shadow. The previous one ThatGuyHim did showed us just how great they were, but didn't really tell us the Shiny:Shadow ratio (I'm assuming it was assumed to be equal). So the 1/400 or 1/500 chance that we deduced is a combination of both. In fact, if you were playing a non-Trainer Pass version, your chance of getting a Shiny OR a Shadow is 1/4000 (2/8000). Hopefully you understood that. Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to test out the SHiny and Shadow odds. I think what ThatGuyHim took as his independent factor was the number of Shinies/Shadows cost, i.e. Count the number of pokemon encountered to get 20 shinies/shadows. Maybe I'm wrong haha. I formed my version of the experiment with an independent factor of the number of pokemon I'd encounter - 300x30 waves to be exact. Without further ado, let's look at the results: Group A Number of rounds played: 300 Pokemon per round: 30 Total number of pokemon encountered: 9000 "Special" Pokemon encountered: TOTAL 18 Complete list in order of appearance Number of Shadow Pokemon encountered: 15 Number of Shiny Pokemon encountered: 3 Group B For the longer rounds... (Encountered most of these by accident) Number of rounds played: 6 Number of pokemon per round: ??? (Anyone know?) Total number of pokemon encountered: ??? Complete list in order of appearance Number of Shadow Pokemon Encountered: 3 Number of Shiny Pokemon Encountered: 2 Proof of Encounters Results: From Group A, Chance of pokemon being shadow = 0.167% Chance of pokemon being shiny = 0.033% Combined chance = 0.2% The combined chance for a pokemon to be either Shiny or Shadow is 1/500. The chance for a pokemon to be Shadow ONLY is about 1/599 The chance for a pokemon to be Shiny ONLY is about 1/3030 However, Group B does not give consistent results. The Shadow: Shiny ratio of the results of Group B is 3:2 Which varies quite a bit from the ratio of Group A (5:1) So my final conclusion: At the surface, Shadow pokemon seem to be slightly more abundant than Shinies. However, Group B shows a ratio of shiny:shadow pokemon ~1 The ratio cannot be determined The only conclusion that can be drawn at the current moment is that Trainer Pass does indeed improve Shiny/Shadow chances by a LOT. If this is a lesson to Trainer Pass users, it is this - to get Shinies and Shadows, grind in long levels. It's almost guaranteed one per level. Thank you for reading this. I will look more into the idea of Shiny:Shadow ratios P.S. This took a bit of time to do. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did. I only aimed for pokemon that I needed for my collection so there's nothing uber rare around. The account also hasn't had the World Tour completed so no dogs were caught P.P.S I don't need the most of the stuff that I caught. My share is: Female Shadow Mewoth Male Shadow Poliwag Male Shiny Farfetch’d Male Shadow Farfetch’d Male Shiny Tangela Male Shadow Magikarp Male Shadow Misdreavus Female Shadow Miltank Female Shadow Swinub Male Shadow Tauros Female Shiny Flaafy (I went ahead to catch 24 shinies/shadows to round it up) Crossed out are the ones I need for my collection. The rest anyone can have if they need it, since I don't have a use for them. Marc I went ahead to investigate further into the long rounds. Still don’t have to patience to count the pokemon, but I grinded a bit to investigate Shiny:Shadow odds. Number of rounds: 10 Caught: Female Shadow Flaafy Male Shadow Flaafy Female Shadow Girafarig Female Shiny Flaafy Female Shiny Zubat Female Shadow Jynx Female Shadow Swinub Female Shadow Golbat Not a lot, but my internet crashed Edited by Marc, Dec 12 2014, 02:43 PM.
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ThatGuyHim
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Dec 13 2014, 01:35 AM Post #2 |
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Jade-Star Badge
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Long rounds do have a pretty high chance of getting a shiny/shadow, to the point where I think of it as about 1 per round. My only question Marc is are you sure you made it to the end of the level each time? Most of them have something that can put your pokemon to sleep and that usually lets a whole stampede through and can end the level early if your not careful. And it's not really worth grinding for because it is easy. Most of what you get are really common (Bellsprout, Jynx, Zubat...). I prefer the Natu area, closed in and pretty easy. Your right that I didnt record shiny/shadow separately so I'll try that when fighting off this "Hoen Invasion" this weekend. I thought shadows might have something to do with night time, only because I once had an experience of finding 7 or 8 Misdreavus with only 1 being Shiny. Not that I've tested it properly though, just a thought that occured to me when I saw that. A quick look at my trades, most of which I caught myself, show about a 50/50 split on shiny/shadow. But yea I'll do a couple hundred rounds and add them to your findings. Nice work |
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Marc
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Dec 13 2014, 03:12 AM Post #3 |
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Randomness
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I did that on purpose - I was aiming to get the Kanto things I needed and not really trying to go for rare stuff to give me a income or something. The only waves I did at night was for Misdreavus. I was at 290 or so and I started getting bored, so I went to have some Misdreavus fun. THe rest is in daytime, because I can see better. I'm pretty sure they're all fully recorded, I mean I was looking at it while it was going. But I'll make sure next time
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Sounak
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Dec 13 2014, 05:25 AM Post #4 |
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Sounak
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Seems really interesting but this weeks update has made each wild wave to 77 that means a shiny or shadow appearence chance for each wave is 0.5(approximate) for trainer pass holders. Meaning a great advantege. |
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Marc
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Dec 13 2014, 06:06 AM Post #5 |
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Randomness
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I think u mean 1 out of 5 round 0.5 chance means 1 out of 2 rounds whichdoesnt happen xd still same odds though But yea, hunted for 1 hour + and only got 1 shiny and 1 shad.. wish I had trainer pass sorry for the mistakes, sent from my phone |
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ThatGuyHim
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Dec 13 2014, 12:48 PM Post #6 |
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Jade-Star Badge
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So today I did 130 rounds, 77 pokemon per round, makes it 10010 pokemon encountered. Shiny: 10 Shadow: 15 From my test odds of a pokemon being shiny: 0.099% Odds of being shadow: 0.1499% Total odds of being special: 0.25% I'll combine this with Marc's test A so we can keep a running total. Total Pokemon encountered: 19010 Total Shiny: 13 Total Shadow: 30 Shiny %: 0.068% Shadow %: 0.158% Total odds of being special: 0.226% And then finally, combined with my original test: Total Pokemon encountered: 28400 Total Special: 63 Odds of being special: 0.22% I'll put up the ones I dont want in the trade forum tomorrow or the day after. |
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Marc
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Dec 13 2014, 01:29 PM Post #7 |
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Randomness
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Nice stuff. Seems like you're much more luckier than me when it comes to shinies and shadows However it does seem Shadows are higher than shinies so far ![]() Will experiment once my friend gets off his account |
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Sounak
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Dec 13 2014, 05:08 PM Post #8 |
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Sounak
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Sorry for the mistake It should be 2 per 5 rounds meaning 0.25% chance of appearing. |
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ThatGuyHim
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Dec 14 2014, 12:16 AM Post #9 |
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Jade-Star Badge
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That should be 1 per 5 Rounds if it's 0.25% And 1 per 7 Rounds if it's 0.2% |
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Marc
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Dec 14 2014, 03:44 AM Post #10 |
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Randomness
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Rounds played: 250 Pokemon per round: 77 Number of Pokemon encounter: 19250 Number of “special” pokemon encountered: 37 Chance for a “special” pokemon to be encountered: 0.192% List of “Special” Pokemon encountered in order Rounds played: 250 Pokemon per round: 77 Number of Pokemon encounter: 19250 Number of Shiny pokemon encountered: 19 Chance for a “special” pokemon to be encountered: 0.0987% Rounds played: 250 Pokemon per round: 77 Number of Pokemon encounter: 19250 Number of Shadow pokemon encountered: 18 Chance for a “special” pokemon to be encountered: 0.0935% Proof of Encounter Results: The results of this group of data have been rather consistent in terms of Shiny/Shadow occurrence. The first set of encounters rendered a 1/500 chance – this shows a consistent trend. The scale of experiment is large, in order to minimize the inaccuracy of experimental probability. Contrary to the above thesis, this experiment gives a slightly higher Shiny proportion, about 1 shiny per 0.947 shadows. I went ahead to try to catch one more shiny/shadow in hopes that the 38th would even out – but a shiny was caught. This part of the experiment is thus neglected as no concrete evidence is at light. This took more than 3 hours (not that I’m counting) so I hope you enjoyed reading it. So once again, I got a load of stuff I don’t need. I apologize for the repetition – I was aiming to get Shadow Machop F and Shiny Machop F. My friend has also agreed to allow me to keep all of the stuff I’ve caught as long as I leave Shadow Chimecho, Shadow Baltoy, 2 Shiny Clamperls and 2 Shadow Clamperls to him. So other than those, if there’s something listed above that you want, shoot me a PM. (I’m pretty much willing to give anything other than Shiny Machop F. DISCLAIMER: I reserve the final say to whether something is up for grabs, as I have to refer to my own account to see what I need and what I don’t) If someone can calculate all of it including ThatGuyHim's statistics, that'd be awesome, because I just copied and pasted this from my phone (PC was dead the entire day yesterday) Edited by Marc, Dec 14 2014, 03:46 AM.
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